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Trail Running Future: Eleven Bets for mountain races in 2035, by Mayayo.
Trail Running Future: Eleven Bets for mountain races in 2035, by Mayayo. By the end of 2025, trail running is no longer a promise or a passing fad. It is a global sporting ecosystem with millions of participants, consolidated professional circuits, national federations on five continents, and an industry that comfortably exceeds tens of billions of dollars annually once equipment, travel, insurance and race entry fees are added together, according to aggregated data from the different market actors.
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Trail Running Future:
Eleven Bets for mountain races in 2035, by Mayayo.
Thinking about trail running in 2035 is not an exercise in science fiction, but rather an attempt to project trends that are already underway. This essay looks to the future not with the heart and a crystal ball, but guided by what the Excel spreadsheets say about participation, results, demographics, audiences and, whether we like it or not, money.
In fact, back in 2023 spending on trail running shoes alone was estimated at eight billion dollars. If your shoes represent only X percent of what you spend each year on mountain races, then multiply it yourself and you will get an idea of the scale we are talking about, or compare it with the average reference in the ITRA 2022 report. A lot of money, and more every year, yes. But also more passion and enthusiasm than ever before.
So sit down now, if you can, with a coffee, or a beer, or several, and read this calmly. It has taken me several weeks to collect and digest all the data, and it can get a bit dense, but it is a reality that is there. These are my bets for the coming decade. Important: save this document so that in 2035 you can laugh at how wrong I was… or maybe not. Time will tell.
Point 1. Trail running will continue to grow
The data are stubborn. According to the “State of Trail Running 2024” report, the number of unique runners in trail races grew from 1.2 million in 2010 to more than 8.5 million in 2022, with an average annual growth rate close to twelve percent. After the pandemic slowdown, 2023 and 2024 marked historic records in both number of events and finishers. World Athletics estimates that by 2024 trail and mountain running already represented eighteen percent of all federated off-road events worldwide.
Growth is not concentrated only in Western Europe or North America. Asia-Pacific was the region with the highest percentage increase, above eighteen percent annually, driven by China, Japan and South Korea. Looking ahead to 2035, with the expansion of urban middle classes and the appeal of nature-based sport, everything points to more participants, more races and more marked kilometres.
Point 2. A more open and diverse trail running
Trail running in Spain is not representative of the world. Here it has always been a transversal sport, with young and old, fat and thin, architects and bricklayers. However, as I saw when running the Leadville 100 Miles in 2010, in other parts of the world such as the USA it was largely a sport for white, adult, upper-middle-class runners.
That no longer describes reality. According to ITRA, in 2010 eighty-two percent of participants were between thirty and forty-nine years old; by 2024 that group had dropped to sixty-one percent, with notable growth both under thirty and over fifty-five. In the United States, RunRepeat shows that the percentage of non-white runners in ultras increased from seven percent in 2014 to eighteen percent in 2023.
In China, Kenya or Morocco, trail running is already a professional sport for young people from rural backgrounds. Professional diversity is also growing in the global amateur pack: fewer executives escaping stress and more students, mountain guides, farmers or urban delivery workers, in a pattern similar to Spain’s traditional mix.
Trail running in 2035 will be less homogeneous because the mountains are no longer the preserve of a few. There is room for everyone. In fact, women’s trail running, perhaps the area where Spain lags most behind other countries, will continue to grow explosively at grassroots level, to the point that we will later dedicate a specific point to the evolution of the female elite.
Point 3. The world elite will be rainbow-coloured.
If anything has changed in the last decade, it is the map of the podium. In 2010 more than seventy percent of victories in international ITRA Elite races went to athletes from Western Europe. By 2024 that figure had fallen below forty-five percent. Asia has gone from anecdotal to protagonist, with figures such as Ruy Ueda and Japanese teams dominating vertical races and marathons.
Africa is no longer just Kilian training in Iten. Runners from Uganda, Morocco and South Africa are beginning to win pure mountain races. Latin America adds depth, and the United States maintains competitive muscle. In 2035 the elite will be multicoloured because access to equipment, knowledge and circuits is no longer geographically restricted.
Source: https://itra.run/Stats/TopAthletes
Point 4. The female elite will reduce the gap to men.
Here the numbers are especially clear. Female participation in trail running rose from fifteen percent in 2005 to twenty-seven percent in 2015 and to thirty-eight percent in 2024, according to ITRA. In ultra distances the growth is even greater. In terms of performance, the average time gap between men and women in ultras over one hundred kilometres has narrowed from fourteen percent in 2010 to nine percent in 2023.
Cases such as Courtney Dauwalter at Transgrancanaria and UTMB, or Tove Alexandersson fighting for a top five at the Canfranc Marathon in 2025, are not anomalies but early signs of a trend. Tove scored 877 points at the Canfranc World Championships, the absolute female record in the ITRA ranking, but personally I was even more impressed by her silver medal at Canfranc Canfranc after threatening Thibaut Baronian’s absolute course record, despite suffering a fall that required eight stitches to her head.
In 2035 we will see women winning races outright and, I hope, absolute equality in prize money and media coverage, since both men and women will generate identical audiences. If this is not achieved, it would open another debate just as interesting or more so about how to distribute the money generated by professional sport among its actors.
Point 5. The World Championships will be the key event.
The creation of unified Trail and Mountain Running World Championships under World Athletics has shifted the axis of the sport. Thailand 2022, Innsbruck-Stubai 2023 and Canfranc-Pyrenees 2025 set records for participating countries and media coverage.
Canfranc, with more than 1,200 athletes from eighty countries, was the trail event with the greatest national representation in history. South Africa, the next host, confirms the global vocation. Unlike any private circuit, however good they may be, the World Championships offer maximum sporting legitimacy, federative development and even, in powers such as Uganda, the only access for runners to public funding.
Another key advantage is that only the World Championships bring together the best athletes in all the main modalities of the sport, competing not only individually but also as part of a national team. This makes it much easier for the public to identify with an athlete beyond the commercial brand paying them that year.
Putting all these factors together, I believe that by 2035 the World Championships will be the main seasonal objective for the elite and the principal showcase for emerging countries.
Davide Magnini and Mayayo at WMTRC Canfranc 2025.
Grayson Murphy and Mayayo at WMTRC Canfranc 2025
Point 6. Trail running will be Olympic.
For me it is not a question of if, but of how. Trail running already meets several Olympic criteria: growing universality, gender equality, low infrastructure impact and audiovisual appeal. World Athletics officially recognised trail running as a discipline in its own right back in 2015.
The debate is more about format: summer or winter, individual or team race, fusion with cross country or classic mountain running. Test events at Youth Olympic Games and multi-sport competitions point to a short, technical, television-friendly format. By 2035 trail running will probably be Olympic, although not necessarily in the way purists imagine. On this issue I personally feel very ambivalent.
Of course I want Olympic recognition. But if it comes at the cost of changing a large part of its essence, as I have seen happen with mountain biking first, then climbing, and skimo this very year, then one has to ask: what does it profit a man to gain the whole world and lose his soul?
Trail Runing in the 2030 Olympics, by Egon Theiner
Point 7. The key modalities will remain.
Vertical, Classic, Marathon and Ultra. This four-of-a-kind is understood by everyone, beyond absurd proprietary names. These are not commercial labels but distinct physiological and cultural responses. Registration data show stability. According to ITRA, between 2018 and 2024 vertical races grew by nine percent, classic by eleven percent, marathons by thirteen percent and ultras by ten percent. No single modality is devouring the others.
In 2035 they will continue to coexist because they attract different profiles and allow both local races and major global events. Above all, because they present completely different physical and mental challenges, and that is priceless. Speaking as a veteran ultrarunner, after several hundred-mile ultras I am still terrified of racing a vertical kilometre, tasting blood in my mouth from the very start.
Point 8. Less technical, more runnable.
Here the mass decides. Participant growth is concentrated in races with lower technical difficulty and greater accessibility. In Europe, more than sixty percent of new races created between 2019 and 2024 have less than one thousand metres of positive elevation gain and predominantly runnable tracks.
Highly technical races, such as Italy’s Sentiero Kima or Spain’s Travesera, Cainejo or Canfranc, retain prestige and elite status, but they obviously cannot accommodate thousands of runners. Given the evolution of the pack’s technical experience and corporate business interests, it seems obvious to me that trail running in 2035 will, for the majority, be more runnable and less alpine.
Perhaps this makes 2026 the perfect time to prioritise technical mountain races while they are still with us. I am already dreaming of Travesera Picos de Europa 2026. And you?
Point 9. Digitised audiences.
According to Nielsen Sports, more than eighty percent of trail consumption in 2024 took place via streaming, social media, podcasts and real-time results platforms. UTMB generated more than 200 million cumulative digital views in 2023. In 2035 live trail running will continue to be followed on mobile via streaming or websites, or consumed later in fragmented form, with highlights, short narratives and data.
That said, as football clearly shows, there will continue to be a crucial space before and after each race, with pre-race press discussion and post-race debate analysing the results.
I believe the role of the expert journalist will remain key, objectively helping fans understand the challenges and options of each athlete, as well as providing summaries and explanations of results that often make no sense without full post-race context.
In any case, whether text, audio or video, websites, podcasts and online video platforms have already surpassed twentieth-century solutions such as printed newspapers and magazines, radio or television, both in speed and depth. Neither good nor bad in itself, just another way of accessing the same information.
Streaming at Reventón El Paso 2025.
Point 10. More doping cases.
Where there is more money and visibility, there are more temptations. The World Anti-Doping Agency shows a sustained increase in trail running controls since 2018, with a still low but rising positive rate. Professionalisation will bring more controls, more sanctions and more ethical debates. Denying this would be naïve, or worse, absurd.
It is therefore crucial that more mountain races implement WADA-compliant controls and that athletes proudly publish every time they are tested, before, during or after competition. That way we will understand that if you are truly good, you have to pass controls. Otherwise, perhaps you are not being tested because you are not racing in controlled events. And that kind of elite runner does not appeal to me at all.
Point 11. Betting will arrive.
Where there is audience and data, there is betting. Experimental markets already exist in road running and cycling. Trail running, with live tracking and clear rankings, is the next candidate. By 2035 betting will be present, regulated or not, and the challenge will be to protect sporting integrity.
TRAIL RUNNING 2035: Conclusion by Mayayo.
Trail running in 2035 will not be unrecognisable to a veteran, but it will be much bigger, more diverse and more complex. The essence of running in the mountains will remain intact, but surrounded by more money, cameras, flags and interests. Understanding these trends is not nostalgia or resistance to change. It is the best way to keep enjoying the path with eyes wide open.
Longing for those romantic pioneering days, yes. And at the same time training like mad to keep enjoying the next finish line. Because every mountain race, even when you repeat the same course, is always unique and different. There are never two the same. The mountains make sure of that.
Mayayo at Transgrancanaria 2010. Foto: Transgrancanaria.
BIBLIOGRAPHY TRAIL RUNNING 2025.
- TRAIL RUNNERS HABITS ITRA 2022
- The State of trail running 2022 by Run Repeat.
- State of trail running 2024 .Tom Matlack & Mikey Yablong.
- Sfia Topline participation sports report USA 2024 Mayayo.
- MUNDIAL CANFRANC 2025 LISTA DE INSCRITOS OFICIAL
- AIU-25-277-Joyline-CHEPNGENO-Decision83
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